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In fact, much of the historical skill for seasonal precipitation forecasts stems from the occurrence of La Niña or El Niño. This influence results in enhanced predictability, as the patterns of both temperature and precipitation during most episodes share many features. What I’m about to write shouldn’t surprise long-time blog readers, but the occurrence of La Niña (as well as El Niño) often exerts a significant influence on winter climate over North America.
Upgrading to outlook 2016 from 2010 youtube update#
Will we see a typical response to La Niña this year (sure didn’t see it last year) or will other factors play a more significant role than La Niña again this year? Are La Niña impacts more reliable in the second year of a “double-dip” event? Finally, how will the update to the long-term temperature and precipitation averages affect the outlooks? So many questions, so little time (Aunt Edna is in for a treat), so let’s get started! Sitting at the head of the table weather and climate during the upcoming winter.
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If you’re still searching for something to talk about with Aunt Edna at the Thanksgiving dinner table, I have some good news for you – it’s time for my annual NOAA Winter Outlook post! ( footnote #1) If this post gives you a feeling of déjà vu, I can understand why for the second year in a row, La Niña has developed and is expected to impact the U.S. We will miss having his steady hand at the ENSO blog and wish him the best! Mike is famous to us because he played a critical role in discovering and documenting climate impacts associated with El Niño and La Niña in a set of very highly cited papers that won awards. He has patiently answered oodles and oodles of questions about climate outlooks, starred in many of 's video outlooks, served on the science advisory panel, and acted as a moderator moderator on the blog since inception in 2014. He has worked at NOAA Climate Prediction Center for 41 years and has served as Deputy Director for the last 15 years.
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Mike Halpert has guest blogged for us each fall, and because this is his last guest blog before retirement in later 2022, we want to briefly highlight his contributions.